Thursday, July 13, 2006
The Middle East Muddle
Obviously the most valuable thing in the Middle East is the Oil, and I think it is fair to say that we are now in the Age of Resource Wars (per Prof. Klare). So: the second largest exporter of oil is Iran, Saudi Arabia is #1. Most Saudi Oil goes through the narrow Straights of Hormuz, which is nearly surrounded by Iran. Iran's Supreme Poobah Khamenei has said that if we fuck with Iran, they'll close down the straights of Hormuz. which would effectively cut off about 60% of the world's oil, striaght up.
That's why the USA et al are so freaked - it's like the Pusher Man saying "no dope for YOU mofo!" Keep an eye on the G8 meeting this weekend. Dollars for donuts, the diuscussion will NOT be:
America's insane trade deficit
China's insane trade surplus
china's wildly undervalued currency
America's insane budget deficit
The impending global oil peak
It will be Iran.
The neocons are desperate to keep the foot to the floor on American overconsumption of oil, and that foot will increasingly rest on the neck of Iran.
Note: The USA basically intimated "bad things" would happen on July 12 if Iran didn't come to the table with something the USA considers worthwhile.
What happened on July 12?
Israel invaded Lebanon.
What does that do? It takes ALL THE HEAT AND LIGHT off of Iran. Iran is STILL the big target - if people keep their hats on and chill, Israel will eventually leave Lebanon and things there will be a mess, but a suitable distraction from the real target: Iran.
How? The Hezbollah are trained and supported by the Iranian Military, and (IIRC) specifically a weird bunch of Green Beret Types called Al Qud. So, what we have in Lebanon is a Proxy War between the USA and Iran:
USA -> Israel -> (LEBANON) <- Hezbollah <- Iran
Which JUST HAPPENED to erupt the very DAY when the USA was about to do something against Iran. The USA will continue to do that, but the war in Lebanon has sucked all the air out of the room, and now the G8 can sit and plan out "what is to be done with Iran" without the spotlight being "what is the G8 going to do with Iran".
This is NOT to say that the invasion of Lebanon was timed, conspiracy theory is boring - as the evidence indicates that everyone's shooting in the dark, however: it came at a VERY convenient time, and on a *very convenient day*.
So, my guess is this:
Israel's invasion Lebanon is one of those fortuitous terrible events and will provide suitable cover for the major powers to convene and deal with notions of Iran while the rest of the planet freaks out over Lebanon. The Bush Junta will push for military force against Iran, or something that will lead to force. After their total fuck up in Iraq, they're scraping the barrel on international support, but Iran has everyone (except Russia) by the short and curlies with one crucial ingredient: Oil.
Thus, it makes it easier to get the rest of the G8 (sans Russia) exercised over Iran. China's not in the G8, and is not big on action against Iran, because a big chunk of Iranian oil goes to China, and while action against Iran would screw everyone up, it would mostly screw China.
I would figure the G8 would fracture along those lines. Russia has europe by the short hairs (natural gas) so the europeans can't pull too far from orbit, but there is a lot of room for movement on side issues that appease the 900lb gorilla (USA), like IRAN.
Hence, Europe will tend to fall against Iran, Russia doesn't care (oil at $100 a barrel works for them!) so China would be the most agrieved. Hence: Bush making nice nice with Putin lately so grinding the Chinese won't seem so bad.
These aren't the end times, by a long stretch, but for the first time in 80 years, we're really looking down the throat of True Disaster. Which wouldn't be so bad if True Disaster would bother brushing a little more often.
That's why the USA et al are so freaked - it's like the Pusher Man saying "no dope for YOU mofo!" Keep an eye on the G8 meeting this weekend. Dollars for donuts, the diuscussion will NOT be:
America's insane trade deficit
China's insane trade surplus
china's wildly undervalued currency
America's insane budget deficit
The impending global oil peak
It will be Iran.
The neocons are desperate to keep the foot to the floor on American overconsumption of oil, and that foot will increasingly rest on the neck of Iran.
Note: The USA basically intimated "bad things" would happen on July 12 if Iran didn't come to the table with something the USA considers worthwhile.
What happened on July 12?
Israel invaded Lebanon.
What does that do? It takes ALL THE HEAT AND LIGHT off of Iran. Iran is STILL the big target - if people keep their hats on and chill, Israel will eventually leave Lebanon and things there will be a mess, but a suitable distraction from the real target: Iran.
How? The Hezbollah are trained and supported by the Iranian Military, and (IIRC) specifically a weird bunch of Green Beret Types called Al Qud. So, what we have in Lebanon is a Proxy War between the USA and Iran:
USA -> Israel -> (LEBANON) <- Hezbollah <- Iran
Which JUST HAPPENED to erupt the very DAY when the USA was about to do something against Iran. The USA will continue to do that, but the war in Lebanon has sucked all the air out of the room, and now the G8 can sit and plan out "what is to be done with Iran" without the spotlight being "what is the G8 going to do with Iran".
This is NOT to say that the invasion of Lebanon was timed, conspiracy theory is boring - as the evidence indicates that everyone's shooting in the dark, however: it came at a VERY convenient time, and on a *very convenient day*.
So, my guess is this:
Israel's invasion Lebanon is one of those fortuitous terrible events and will provide suitable cover for the major powers to convene and deal with notions of Iran while the rest of the planet freaks out over Lebanon. The Bush Junta will push for military force against Iran, or something that will lead to force. After their total fuck up in Iraq, they're scraping the barrel on international support, but Iran has everyone (except Russia) by the short and curlies with one crucial ingredient: Oil.
Thus, it makes it easier to get the rest of the G8 (sans Russia) exercised over Iran. China's not in the G8, and is not big on action against Iran, because a big chunk of Iranian oil goes to China, and while action against Iran would screw everyone up, it would mostly screw China.
I would figure the G8 would fracture along those lines. Russia has europe by the short hairs (natural gas) so the europeans can't pull too far from orbit, but there is a lot of room for movement on side issues that appease the 900lb gorilla (USA), like IRAN.
Hence, Europe will tend to fall against Iran, Russia doesn't care (oil at $100 a barrel works for them!) so China would be the most agrieved. Hence: Bush making nice nice with Putin lately so grinding the Chinese won't seem so bad.
These aren't the end times, by a long stretch, but for the first time in 80 years, we're really looking down the throat of True Disaster. Which wouldn't be so bad if True Disaster would bother brushing a little more often.
